Northerly Breeze Set to Bring the Fleet Home
PredictWind weather expert Arnaud Monges looks at the developing weather scenario for the 24 boats still racing in the RORC Round Britain and Ireland Race.
While the leading boats have completed the 1,805-nautical-mile course, 24 teams remain at sea, spread across almost 810 miles of racecourse.
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Lombard 46 Pata Negra © James Tomlinson/RORC
At the front, Challenge Ocean and Pata Negra were both approximately 80 miles from Cowes on Wednesday morning 19 August and predicted to finish during the evening. Behind them, the next group stretched from Frida, with 157 miles remaining, to Löwe von Bremen on 314 miles.
Sun Fast 3600 RORC Griffin © James Tomlinson/RORC
Nine boats were predicted to finish during Thursday 20 August: Frida, Kestrel, Tigris, Moana, Löwe von Bremen, RORC Griffin, Sky Business - Game On, Stickleback and Mzungu! If the projections hold, Cowes could see a steady procession of finishers from Thursday morning until late in the evening.
Swan 44 Astrid © James Tomlinson/RORC
Further back, Jetpack, Fujitsu British Soldier, Espresso Martini Too, Mojo, Ronin and Astrid were among the boats projected to finish on Friday 21 August. Zanzibar and Xantho were expected during Saturday 22 August, with Polished Manx 2 and Snifix Dry forecast to finish on Sunday 23 August.
AJ Wanderlust © Tim Wright/RORC
The final two boats remained much farther north. Quailo III had 672 miles to sail, while AJ Wanderlust, the last boat yet to round Muckle Flugga and Out Stack, was 887 miles from Cowes. Their predicted finish times remain highly uncertain and should improve once they reach the developing northerly breeze.
PredictWind, an official supporter of the 2026 RORC Round Britain and Ireland Race, is bringing its weather-analysis expertise to the event. PredictWind weather expert Arnaud Monges has examined the conditions facing the fleet from Wednesday 19 August through to Saturday 22 August.
Wednesday 19 August: Light winds in the east, upwind in the north
On Wednesday, the racecourse is under the influence of a large and complex low-pressure system formed by two separate centres, identified as L1 and L2.
The majority of the fleet on the eastern side of the United Kingdom is caught close to the centre of this system. Winds are expected to remain light and predominantly from the west, making progress south difficult and potentially frustrating. Rain and showers will also affect parts of the fleet.
Conditions are very different for AJ Wanderlust, the final boat approaching the northern turning point. Positioned to the north of L2, the crew faces approximately 20 knots of wind and an upwind passage before rounding Muckle Flugga and Out Stack.
This creates a striking contrast across the course: light and uncertain conditions for the boats farther south, but a much tougher beat for the final boat still heading north.
Wednesday 19 August: the racecourse is influenced by two low-pressure centres, L1 and L2. Image: PredictWind
Thursday 20 August: The fleet begins to compress
During Thursday, L2 is forecast to move progressively south-east. The boats farther south will remain in light westerly winds, with further rain possible as the low moves across the region.
Farther north, however, an important change should begin. A high-pressure system moving in from the Atlantic will establish a northerly airflow behind the departing low.
The northerly breeze should first reach the boats at the back of the fleet, giving them favourable downwind conditions while the teams farther south remain in lighter winds. According to Monges, this should allow the boats behind to close the distance on those ahead and compress the fleet.
Boats that have spent days separated by large distances could begin converging as those farther north sail into stronger and more favourable pressure.
Thursday 20 August: a northerly airflow begins to establish behind L2. Image: PredictWind
Friday 21 August: Fast progress south
By Friday, the northerly wind is expected to become established along the entire eastern side of the United Kingdom.
With 15 to 20 knots from behind, the remaining boats should enjoy their best opportunity for sustained progress south. After the light and unstable conditions surrounding the low-pressure system, the arrival of a consistent northerly will be a welcome change for tired crews.
Sail selection, positioning and boat speed will become increasingly important as the teams attempt to make the most of the following breeze. The stronger wind may particularly benefit boats able to maintain high speeds under spinnaker or reaching sails.
Friday 21 August: 15 to 20 knots from the north should bring fast downwind progress. Image: PredictWind
Saturday 22 August: A final push towards Cowes
On Saturday, the Atlantic high-pressure system is forecast to move closer to the United Kingdom. As it approaches, the northerly wind along the east coast is expected to become lighter, although it should remain favourable for the southbound fleet.
Crucially, the breeze is forecast to extend into the English Channel and turn north-easterly. This could provide the remaining boats with a valuable push along the final section of the course towards the finish at Cowes.
Saturday 22 August: a lighter north-easterly could help push the remaining boats towards Cowes. Image: PredictWind
Outlook: Rush Hour Approaching
The fleet must first contend with light and unsettled conditions around the two low-pressure centres. However, the northerly arriving from Thursday should allow the boats farther north to accelerate and close on those ahead.
By Friday, 15 to 20 knots from the north should provide fast downwind conditions before the breeze eases and turns north-easterly in the English Channel.
With two boats expected on Wednesday evening and nine more predicted during Thursday 20 August, it could soon be rush hour at the RORC Clubhouse in Cowes.
Note: Weather analysis supplied by Arnaud Monges of PredictWind, an official supporter of the 2026 RORC Round Britain and Ireland Race. Forecast conditions and estimated finish times remain subject to change.
